UBS Raises Price Target on Vistra (VST) to $233 After Meta Nuclear Power Deal

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is highlighted as a significant AI stock on Wall Street, with UBS raising its price target to $233.00 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, driven by strong cash flow visibility from nuclear power purchase agreements (PPAs) with META [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Agreements - Vistra has entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement with Meta Platforms Inc. to supply 2,609 megawatts (MW) of carbon-free electricity from its nuclear plants in the PJM Interconnection region [2]. - The company's 8-K filing indicates a projected cash accretion of 13-17% compared to 2026 guidance, with an estimated EBITDA growth of approximately $400 million from existing nuclear assets and another $400 million from uprates [3]. - UBS analysts emphasize that 48% of Vistra's nuclear fleet remains un-contracted, suggesting potential for further agreements [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Investor Sentiment - UBS argues that investor concerns regarding margin uplift are misplaced, as they underestimate the value of Vistra's long-term cash-flow visibility and premium-priced contracts [4]. - The company’s long-term EBITDA contracts, including the Comanche Peak deal, cover over 25% of total EBITDA and reflect premium pricing supported by record-high capacity prices of approximately $330/MW-Day [5].