世界经济论坛发布报告指出：地缘经济与技术将塑造经济格局

Core Insights - The stability of geopolitical landscapes and the speed and breadth of technology adoption will jointly determine the future trajectory of the global economy [1] - Companies must develop strategies that consider both political risks and technological uncertainties, rather than relying on a single assumption [1] Group 1: Future Scenarios - The report outlines four potential scenarios for the world in 2030: 1. A digital order with stable geopolitics and rapid technology adoption, leading to economic recovery but increased job disruption and social inequality 2. A cautious stability scenario with eased international relations but slow technology diffusion and weak economic growth 3. A technology-driven survival scenario characterized by high geopolitical turmoil and rapid technology spread within factions, with companies relying on digitalization to hedge geopolitical risks 4. A geopolitical technology camp scenario marked by escalating conflicts and highly polarized trade and technology, resulting in economic stagnation or decline [1][2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Technology - The report emphasizes that technological dividends do not automatically translate into economic growth; issues such as skill shortages, weak infrastructure, fragmented regulation, and heightened geopolitical conflicts can hinder expected productivity and growth returns [2] - Geopolitical fragmentation is expected to persist and significantly impact business models, leading to more regionalized and localized supply chains, with trade and investment increasingly influenced by political factors [2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies need to build capabilities that are effective across various future scenarios, avoiding reliance on a single strategic outlook [3] - The report proposes a set of "no-regret strategies" that enhance organizational resilience and competitiveness, divided into four capability modules: 1. Enhancing organizational resilience through strengthening core operational capabilities and critical infrastructure 2. Addressing geopolitical challenges by developing geopolitical analysis capabilities and deepening strategic partnerships 3. Improving strategic foresight with enhanced data-driven decision-making and flexible capital allocation 4. Fostering technology and talent development by adopting emerging technologies at scale, ensuring technology enhances rather than replaces labor, and diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on single regions [3]