2025年广州写字楼空置压力攀升，科技赛道托底需求

Core Viewpoint - The office market in first-tier cities, particularly Guangzhou, is experiencing increasing vacancy rates due to economic cycles and weakened demand, with the average vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings reaching 23.3% by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - Guangzhou's office market saw a total of 10 new projects entering the market, adding 549,000 square meters of new supply, while the total stock of Grade A office space increased by 7.5% year-on-year to 7.726 million square meters [1]. - The net absorption for the year was approximately 210,000 square meters, resulting in a supply-demand ratio exceeding 2:1, indicating that demand is not keeping pace with supply [2][1]. - The net absorption figure is over 20% lower than the average of the past five years, contributing to the ongoing rise in the average vacancy rate across the city [2]. Group 2: Rental Trends and Market Dynamics - The average rent for Grade A office space in Guangzhou was 123.1 yuan per square meter per month by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.4% [7]. - Since 2018, rental levels in Guangzhou have been on a downward trend, with other major first-tier cities experiencing similar declines, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing rental drops of over 40% from their peaks [7]. - The market is expected to face continued pressure on vacancy rates and rental levels due to an anticipated supply peak in 2026, with new supply projected to exceed 871,000 square meters, representing an 11.3% year-on-year increase in total stock [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Demand - Key demand drivers in Guangzhou include finance, retail and trade, professional services, information technology, and TMT sectors, with significant contributions from financial institutions and technology companies [5][6]. - Emerging business districts like the International Financial City and Pazhou are leading in net absorption, accounting for nearly 180,000 square meters of the total net absorption, with a year-on-year growth rate of 66.4% [5][6]. - The demand from financial firms remains robust, with over 20% of leasing activities attributed to banks, securities firms, and insurance companies, while e-commerce and retail sectors also show positive demand trends [7]. Group 4: Retail Market Overview - The retail market in Guangzhou remains relatively stable, with an average vacancy rate of 12.8% and an average rent of 606.8 yuan per square meter per month, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [8]. - Despite a cautious expansion in retail demand, the annual net absorption was 42.3% lower than the average of the past decade, indicating ongoing challenges for asset holders [9]. - The retail sector is witnessing new brands entering the market, particularly those targeting younger consumer demographics, with dining, fashion, and accessories being the top three demand categories [8].