中信证券明明 王楠茜：债市启明｜美国12月CPI数据如何解读？

Core Insights - The U.S. December CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.7%, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [1][10] - The core CPI month-on-month growth rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [1][10] - Overall, despite short-term disturbances in food and energy inflation, the pressure for further inflation in the U.S. is expected to be manageable due to weak employment and declining tariff impacts [1][10] CPI Overview - The unadjusted CPI year-on-year growth rate for December remained steady at 2.7%, consistent with November's figure [2][11] - The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.6%, matching November's value but below the expected 2.7% [2][11] - The CPI month-on-month growth was 0.3%, consistent with September's value and market expectations, while the core CPI month-on-month growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [2][11] Food Inflation - December food inflation month-on-month growth was 0.7%, up from 0.3% in September, driven by tariffs and supply shortages [3][12] - Specific food categories, such as grains, meats, dairy, and fresh fruits, experienced higher month-on-month growth rates [3][12] - The USDA predicts that food inflation growth in 2026 will be lower than in 2025, with an expected increase of 2.7% for all food prices [3][12] Energy Inflation - December energy inflation month-on-month growth was 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4][13] - Global oil supply is currently sufficient, but geopolitical tensions have led to fluctuations in oil prices [4][13] - Future geopolitical risks may lead to temporary increases in oil prices, although significant long-term price increases are unlikely due to weak global demand [4][13] Core Goods and Services Inflation - Core goods inflation recorded a month-on-month growth of 0%, the lowest since May 2025 [5][13] - Factors such as reduced electric vehicle subsidies and high interest rates have weakened consumer purchasing power, limiting growth in vehicle-related inflation [5][13] - Core services inflation month-on-month growth rose to 0.3%, with persistent inflation mainly in housing and healthcare sectors [6][14] Future Inflation Outlook - The overall inflation pressure in the U.S. is expected to remain manageable, with food inflation growth projected to decline in 2026 compared to 2025 [7][15] - While tariff policies may exert upward pressure on core goods inflation, weakening consumer demand is likely to suppress price increases [7][15] - The risk of further increases in core services inflation is considered manageable, although its persistence is expected to continue [7][15]