Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-17 02:58Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2025 performance is expected to set a record, with a significant increase in capital expenditure for 2026, indicating ongoing benefits from AI computing power and advanced processes. The domestic wafer fabs are entering an expansion phase to address a million-unit capacity gap, creating a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the equipment market, with a potential doubling of domestic equipment localization rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Performance and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is projected to achieve a revenue of $122 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, with a gross margin nearing 60% [2][10]. - The company's capital expenditure for 2025 is set at $40.9 billion, with an aggressive forecast for 2026, estimating capital expenditure to rise to $52-56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $45-48 billion [2][10]. - 70-80% of the 2026 capital expenditure will be directed towards advanced processes, while 10-20% will be allocated for advanced packaging, testing, and mask manufacturing [2][10]. Group 2: Global Semiconductor Market Outlook - The global semiconductor sales are expected to grow from $68 billion in 2025 to $174.1 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.9% [3][11]. - Demand for semiconductors in servers, data centers, and storage is projected to increase from $15.6 billion in 2025 to $82.6 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 18.6% [3][11]. - Global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is anticipated to rise from 11.2 million wafers per month in 2025 to 19 million wafers per month by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.4% [3][11]. Group 3: Domestic Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing a dual drive of "high growth in AI computing power" and "advanced process localization," with a capacity gap exceeding one million wafers [4][12]. - Currently, domestic production of advanced logic processes (7nm and below) accounts for less than 5% of global capacity, while China's semiconductor demand represents about 35% of the global market [4][12]. - The localization rate of semiconductor equipment is currently around 30%, with expectations to double in the future, driven by increased domestic production and technological advancements [5][13]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The ongoing AI wave and the push for localization are expected to lead to sustained, large-scale investments in China to fill the advanced capacity gap of over one million wafers [7][16]. - Focus is recommended on leading companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs in core equipment areas such as etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and CMP, as well as those with flexible localization rates [7][16]. - Companies that can leverage this historical industry opportunity are likely to emerge as internationally competitive domestic manufacturers in the global semiconductor equipment market [7][16].