The reality check everyone’s ignoring

分组1 - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reached an all-time high of $342.92, reflecting a 72% increase over the past year and a 19% rise in the past month, with a revenue growth of 30.3% year-over-year and a profit margin of 43.3% [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA) saw a 42% increase over the past year, trading at $187.30, with Q3 2025 revenue of $57 billion, up 62.5% year-over-year, highlighting the importance of power infrastructure over chip manufacturing [1] - Vistra Energy (VST) surged 19.7% this week to $180.27, up 11.7% year-to-date, as UBS raised its target to $233, indicating a shift in focus towards electricity needs for AI data centers [1] 分组2 - Reddit (RDDT) experienced a 10% decline this week to $228.61, trading at high valuations of 116x trailing earnings and 25x sales, with retail sentiment showing a disconnect from institutional selling [2] - The sentiment for Reddit shifted from very bullish to bearish within a day, indicating a potential for further downside as retail traders remain overly optimistic despite stock performance [2] 分组3 - Software stocks, including Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW), are facing significant selloffs, with CRM down 27% over the past year and trading at 32x trailing earnings, while SNOW has a negative profit margin of 31% [3] - Barron's described the software selloff as "overdone," suggesting that the market is still adjusting to elevated multiples and rising expectations for earnings that are not being met [3] 分组4 - Netflix (NFLX) is set to report earnings with expectations of $0.56 EPS on $12.21 billion in revenue, while the stock has declined 6.1% over the past month to $88.05, indicating a low bar for performance after recent pullbacks [4] - The prediction markets show a high probability of NFLX trading within a tight range, suggesting limited potential for breakout or collapse, while recent earnings missed estimates by 15.7% [4] 分组5 - American EV companies are struggling financially, with Rivian (RIVN) downgraded to sell and trading at a negative profit margin of 61.3%, while Tesla (TSLA) reported a 37% year-over-year earnings decline despite revenue growth [5] - In contrast, Chinese EV maker NIO grew revenue by 16.7% year-over-year and trades at a significantly lower sales multiple, indicating a market shift away from American EV companies [5] 分组6 - The focus for investors should shift towards power utility stocks as the real infrastructure play for AI in 2026, rather than semiconductor stocks that have already appreciated significantly [6] - The ongoing challenges faced by American EV companies, coupled with the competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturers, highlight a critical shift in the automotive market landscape [6]