央行开年启动结构性降息，近30万亿到期定存何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The release of a significant amount of household deposits in 2026, coupled with a trend of structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, is leading to a critical juncture for fund reallocation in the banking sector [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - By the first quarter of 2026, the maturity scale of household one-year and above fixed deposits is expected to reach 29 trillion yuan, with an estimated total of 75 trillion yuan for the entire year [1]. - Despite the decline in new deposit rates, many depositors prefer to keep their funds within the banking system, indicating a trend of "internal circulation" rather than a significant shift to wealth management or capital markets [1][2]. Group 2: Bank Strategies - Commercial banks are shifting from a passive defense strategy to an active approach in retaining deposits, with varying strategies among different types of banks [3][4]. - State-owned banks focus on stabilizing and increasing deposit volumes, while joint-stock banks and leading city commercial banks aim to optimize customer asset structures and encourage diversified asset management [3][4]. Group 3: Wealth Management Market - The wealth management market has not seen a significant influx of funds, with a reported decrease of approximately 161.2 billion yuan in total market scale in early 2026 compared to the end of December 2025 [5]. - Despite favorable conditions for wealth management, low-risk appetite among depositors and ongoing financial pressures are limiting the movement of funds from deposits to wealth management products [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Preferences - The majority of depositors maintain a low-risk profile, with a high retention rate of deposits, which has historically remained above 90% [6]. - The potential for increased risk appetite and the release of excess savings will depend on improvements in the macroeconomic and liquidity environment [6].