跳涨3000元/吨！制冷剂市场延续高景气

Core Viewpoint - The rapid price increase of refrigerants R507 and R404 is driven by a combination of strong overseas demand and limited domestic supply, leading to a high industry prosperity outlook for 2025 and a continued upward trend expected in 2026 [1][2][4]. Price Increase Drivers - The primary driver for the price increase is the surge in demand from overseas markets, particularly from A5 countries, which has led to a significant rise in exports and subsequently boosted the domestic market [2][3]. - The current price increase is characterized as a structural rise due to a tight supply-demand balance, influenced by three main factors: limited inventory at major factories, constrained supply of mixed refrigerants like R507A and R404A, and limited production rates of single-component refrigerants [2][3]. Company Performance - Leading companies in the refrigerant sector have reported optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, with Sanmei Co. expecting a net profit of 1.99 to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 155.66% to 176.11% [4]. - Yonghe Co. anticipates a net profit of 530 to 630 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.87% to 150.66% [4]. - The growth in company earnings is attributed to price adjustments resulting from changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a steady increase in downstream demand for refrigerants [4]. Market Outlook - The industry outlook remains positive, with expectations that the price strength will persist due to high costs and tight supply conditions until new quota products are introduced in 2026 [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the price of mixed refrigerants like R404A and R507A is sensitive to the price of R125, indicating potential for further price increases if R125 remains strong [5]. - The overall inventory levels in the industry are at a two-year low, and with production constraints and high market concentration, there is a prevailing sentiment among companies to hold back on sales, further supporting price increases [5][6].