刘世锦：扩大消费要注重“源头”治理

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments in China to focus more on consumption, livelihood, and demand in their development plans, suggesting that addressing these areas will enhance technological independence and industrial transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - Current economic issues in China include low prices, nominal growth lagging behind actual growth, heavy local debt burdens, consumption downgrade among urban white-collar workers, and structural mismatches in supply and demand [3]. - These challenges are primarily derived from insufficient terminal demand, which is defined as the remaining portion of GDP after removing productive investment, encompassing all consumption and non-productive investments related to livelihood [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Relationship - Expanding consumption should focus on addressing the structural low ratio of consumption within terminal demand, which is seen as a fundamental issue [3]. - A rapid growth in terminal demand is expected to lead to increased investment demand, while slow or contracting terminal demand can result in overcapacity and increased debt burdens [3]. - Statistical data indicates that from January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year and 1.03% month-on-month, significantly correlating with a decline in capacity utilization [3]. Group 3: Technological Independence and Industrial Modernization - Achieving technological independence and building a modern industrial system are crucial, but they must be predicated on the necessary growth of terminal demand [4].