Policy Forces Reshape Bitcoin Trading as Four-Year Cycle Weakens

A new regime in which political announcements move markets more than internal metrics has begun to undermine the relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.  While equities rallied in 2025, Bitcoin lagged, pointing to a market increasingly driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than broad risk appetite. Under the traditional four-year model, early 2026 would typically mark a late-cycle or post-peak phase. Instead, price action suggests investors are deferring that transition, with policy s ...