IOSG: 山寨币的四重困境

Core Insights - The altcoin market is facing a significant crisis due to an oversupply of tokens released from projects that were heavily funded during the 2021-2022 financing bubble, leading to a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand [1][3] - The mechanisms that caused this oversupply have not changed, with many projects continuing to issue tokens regardless of market demand, treating token issuance as a necessary step rather than a strategic choice [1][3] Group 1: The Four-Loss Dilemma - The low circulation model has created a situation where all participants in the market are losing, including centralized exchanges, token holders, project teams, and venture capitalists [3][4] - Centralized exchanges are caught in a dilemma, as they face backlash from the community for poor token performance while trying to protect retail investors through low circulation requirements [3][4] - The strategy of maintaining low circulation to support high valuations has backfired, leading to a distorted market where early supporters suffer losses [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has attempted to break the cycle through two major experiments: Meme coins and the MetaDAO model, both of which revealed the complexities of token design [4][5] - Meme coins aimed to provide a fairer distribution by offering 100% circulation at launch, but resulted in a market flooded with low-quality tokens, leading to significant losses for participants [4][5] - The MetaDAO model sought to protect token holders by giving them control, but it also led to issues such as founders losing too much control and a lack of effective liquidity [6][7] Group 3: Proposed Balancing Solutions - Centralized exchanges should stop extending lock-up periods that hinder price discovery and instead focus on predictable token release schedules tied to performance metrics [8] - Token holders need to avoid overreaching control that could deter quality projects and should demand transparency and accountability from project teams [9][10] - Project teams should refrain from issuing tokens without clear market fit and should maintain the authority to make strategic decisions without excessive oversight [10][11] - Venture capitalists should be more discerning in their approach to token issuance, ensuring that only suitable projects are encouraged to issue tokens [14][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next 12 months are expected to be challenging as the market faces the final wave of oversupply from the previous funding cycle [16][25] - By the end of 2026, projects from the last cycle will either have completed their token issuance or failed, leading to a more rational market environment [16][25] - The long-term threat remains that the altcoin market could devolve into a "lemon market," where only failing projects continue to issue tokens, driving away quality participants [18][24] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of market self-correction, with exchanges tightening their listing criteria and communities exploring better governance structures [22][23]