刘世锦：从旧框架转向新框架

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth is shifting from investment and export-driven to innovation and consumption-driven, emphasizing the importance of terminal demand in the economic structure [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The focus should shift from supply-side investment in material capital to demand-side investment in consumption and human capital [1]. - Terminal demand, primarily driven by consumer spending and non-productive investments, is crucial for economic stability and growth [1][2]. - Recent statistics indicate a 2.6% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to November 2025, with private investment down by 5.3% [1]. Group 2: Human Capital Investment - Emphasis on developing new types of consumption, particularly in services such as education, healthcare, and social security, which are seen as investments in human capital [2][6]. - Enhancing human capital through education and healthcare is essential for sustaining innovation and economic growth [2][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Demand - Economic growth can be understood through two dimensions: height (productivity improvements) and width (demand matching supply) [3]. - Innovation alone cannot replace the need for expanding demand; a stable and growing terminal demand is necessary for translating innovation into economic growth and employment [3]. Group 4: Consumption and Currency Strategy - A new strategy for achieving a balance in imports and exports is recommended, focusing on increasing imports settled in RMB while maintaining export competitiveness [4][8]. - Accelerating the internationalization of the RMB is crucial, with a goal to enhance the currency's global standing and facilitate consumer access to better imported goods [4][9]. - The construction of a strong consumer economy is essential for achieving growth targets and enhancing the quality of life for residents [4][5].