2025年四季度经济学人问卷调查：扩内需、反内卷，激活市场活力成为关键路径

Economic Outlook - China's economy is currently facing a critical period of adjustment, with old problems and new challenges intertwining, necessitating more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote stable economic growth [1][7][8] - 47% of economists believe that GDP growth in Q4 2025 will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 65% expect 2026 growth to be in the range of 4.8% to 5.0% [1][7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization but remains in a deep adjustment phase, with 79% of economists believing that the decline in the real estate market will slow down in 2026, although it has not yet bottomed out [1][16] - 53% of economists predict that housing prices in first- and second-tier cities will drop by 5% to 15% in 2026, while 58% expect a similar decline in third- and fourth-tier cities [16] Investment Trends - Investment remains a key support for economic recovery, with 31% of economists forecasting fixed asset investment growth of 1.6% to 2.0% in 2026, and 42% of investment is expected to focus on technology [15][29] - The report indicates that the real estate market is approaching a critical point of stabilization, with policies aimed at maintaining expectations and improving the quality of housing supply [15][18] Debt and Financial Risks - Local government debt remains a significant concern, with risks stemming from reduced land revenue due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market [8][9] - 59% of economists anticipate a substantial increase in the government debt-to-GDP ratio globally in 2026, highlighting the need for careful management of local government debt [1][24] Consumer Demand and Employment - There is a pressing need to stimulate consumer demand, with 36% of economists suggesting increasing residents' income as a priority, followed by improving the social security system [30][31] - The unemployment rate among urban youth is rising, with significant pressure on job opportunities for recent graduates in 2026 [31] Global Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are viewed as the largest potential disruptor to the global economy in 2026, with 48% of economists identifying this as a key concern [33] - The combination of fiscal expansion to boost demand and monetary policy aimed at reducing costs is expected to dominate macroeconomic policy discussions in 2026 [33][34]