The Saturday Spread: Using the Markov Property to Find Mispriced Opportunities (PANW, NTES, DKS)
Yahoo Finance·2026-01-17 15:15

分组1: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has a current spot price of $187.68, with an expected price range between $171.31 and $204.01 for options expiring on February 20, indicating a symmetrical high-low spread of 8.71% [5] - The stock has shown a downward trend, with only three up weeks in the last ten, suggesting a pessimistic outlook heading into the weekend [6] - Historical data indicates that under 3-7-D conditions, PANW stock tends to swing higher, with a probability density peak expected between $196 and $200 over the next five weeks, making the 195/200 bull call spread an attractive option with a potential max payout of over 156% [7] 分组2: NetEase (NTES) - NetEase (NTES) has a current spot price of $137.98, with an expected price range between $127.52 and $148.43 for options expiring on February 20, based on implied volatility [8] - Similar to PANW, NTES has experienced only three up weeks in the last ten, leading to a downward trend, which typically suggests bearish control [9] - However, historical patterns show that NTES tends to resolve upward under these conditions, with a probability density peak expected around $155, making the 145/155 bull call spread appealing with a potential max payout of 212.5% [10] 分组3: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) has a current spot price of $215.32, with an expected price range between $198.07 and $232.57 for options expiring on February 20 [11] - The stock is currently showing a 3-7-D sequence, which typically has negative implications, but historical data suggests that it tends to resolve higher [12] - Probability density is expected to peak at $230, making the 220/230 bull call spread a sensible speculation with a maximum payout potential of 150% [13]

The Saturday Spread: Using the Markov Property to Find Mispriced Opportunities (PANW, NTES, DKS) - Reportify