被低估的芯片

Core Insights - The semiconductor market is expected to reach between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence and data centers [1][3] - McKinsey's analysis suggests that the semiconductor sales could actually reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, significantly higher than other forecasts, indicating a potential underestimation of the industry's true value [3][17] - The growth will not be evenly distributed among semiconductor companies, with a few innovative firms likely to capture the majority of the market share in advanced chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [3][22] Market Size Reevaluation - Traditional methods of assessing semiconductor market size have relied on sales data from foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which may not accurately reflect the value of companies with in-house design capabilities [4][12] - The growth of self-designed chip manufacturers and OEMs necessitates a reevaluation of market contributions, especially from rapidly developing Chinese companies [4][12] Advanced Evaluation Methods - McKinsey's evaluation method addresses the shortcomings of traditional sales-based assessments by considering internal R&D expenditures and estimated gross margins for self-designed chips [5][8] - The analysis includes the entire value of advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS, attributed to fabless companies, which traditional methods often overlook [8] Future Growth Potential - The semiconductor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2024 to 2030, with significant variations across different segments [21][30] - Key verticals driving growth include computing and data storage, wireless communication, and automotive sectors, with computing and data storage expected to see the largest increase [16][20] Segment-Specific Insights - Advanced nodes are expected to experience a CAGR of 22%, with demand for 3nm nodes projected to grow by 25% [21][22] - HBM is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 20%, significantly outpacing other memory types, indicating a strong market for high-density memory solutions [22] - The automotive sector is also set to grow, driven by the transition to electric vehicles and advancements in driver assistance systems [20][28] Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on innovation in advanced chips and HBM to capitalize on the expected growth, as these areas will likely yield the highest returns [27][30] - Firms in lower-growth segments need to enhance performance and differentiate products to remain competitive, potentially through strategic mergers and acquisitions [30]