A股冰火两重天！当宽基指数估值超过100倍，该如何选择？

Core Viewpoint - The current market shows a significant disparity in valuations, with certain indices exceeding 100 times earnings, indicating potential risks for investors as historical patterns suggest that such high valuations are unsustainable [1][10]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - The valuations of the Sci-Tech 100, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 2000 indices have surpassed 150 times earnings, with the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 50 at 217 times and 172 times respectively, and the CSI 2000 at 164 times as of January 13, 2026 [3][10][16]. - Historical data indicates that when broad market indices exceed 100 times earnings, it often leads to significant market corrections, as seen with the Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq indices in previous decades [10][12]. - The current A-share market presents a dichotomy, with large-cap value and dividend indices showing earnings multiples below 10 times, suggesting that these stocks are undervalued compared to the high-flying indices [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Behavior - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach when market valuations exceed 100 times, as this is a signal to be wary of potential downturns [2][10]. - The phenomenon of irrational market behavior is noted, where undervalued stocks may decline further while overvalued stocks can continue to rise temporarily, but such conditions are not sustainable in the long run [12][5]. - The concept of a valuation anchor is emphasized, suggesting that most stocks should ideally be valued around 20 times earnings, which can help investors gauge market temperature [4][11]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Valuations - Certain sectors are experiencing extreme valuations, with some industry indices showing earnings multiples exceeding 100 times, such as aerospace equipment at 731.87 times and military electronics at 155.68 times [8][14]. - The micro-cap stock index has seen substantial growth, with a rise of 3.1 times since February 2024, despite a significant portion of its constituents being loss-making [11][16].