Cass TL Linehaul Index climbs amid shipment decline

Core Insights - December shipments reached a cycle low, with Cass' multimodal shipments index declining 7.5% year-over-year and a two-year stacked decline of 13.5% [1] - The report attributes the slowdown in volumes to winter storms, while noting that inventories have been drawn down [1][2] Shipment and Expenditure Trends - The shipments dataset fell 7.2% from November, with a seasonally adjusted decline of 3.2% [1] - Cass' expenditures index, which includes total freight spend, decreased by 0.6% year-over-year and was down 4% compared to two years ago, marking the smallest two-year decline since July 2023 [6] - The expenditures subcomponent was down 0.5% in 2025, while shipments were off 6% on average, indicating that freight rates likely increased by 7% year-over-year in December [6] Market Conditions - J.B. Hunt Transport Services reported a tightening market beginning the week before Thanksgiving, with seasonal strength observed at the start of the year without adverse weather [3] - The Van Outbound Rejection Index indicates a tightening truckload market, reflecting the number of dry van loads rejected by carriers [4] - The National Truckload Index showed an increase in spot rates through the peak season, attributed to new constraints on the driver pool [5] - The TL linehaul index increased by 1% from November, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, and was up 2.1% year-over-year [8]