美指震荡冲击短期支撑强劲 中长期弱势格局难改

Group 1 - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, reaching a two-week high, driven by multiple favorable factors and market focus on its impact on key psychological levels [1] - The rebound of the dollar is primarily attributed to the resonance of economic data and risk aversion, with recent inflation data meeting expectations and core inflation remaining stable, reducing market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the US and Iran, have heightened the dollar's safe-haven appeal, with rising oil prices driving risk-averse capital back to the dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in market views on the medium to long-term trajectory of the dollar, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy path and debates over central bank independence [2] - The internal "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve has intensified, leading to significant disagreements on rate cuts, which contributes to ongoing policy uncertainty affecting the dollar's performance [2] - Institutions generally expect the dollar to maintain a "short-term strong, medium to long-term weak" pattern, with key signals including the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the degree of global central bank policy divergence [2]