中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of financing margin does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will impact its structure, leading to intensified competition among thematic sectors and the end of a one-sided trend driven solely by narratives and capital relay [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - Historical experience shows that an increase in financing margin effectively reduces market volatility in the short term, as evidenced by a decrease in the standard deviation of daily returns from 1.61% to 1.45% after a margin increase in 2015, with a maximum drawdown of only 5.9% [1]. - Following the margin adjustment, the average daily trading volume in A-shares dropped from 10,298 billion yuan to 8,774 billion yuan, a decline of 14.8%, indicating a significant cooling of investor sentiment [1]. - The current financing buy-in ratio is relatively low, with an average of 11.18% since 2026, lower than the 12.11% observed before the 2015 margin adjustment [2]. Thematic Sector Analysis - The adjustment of financing margin is seen as a targeted cooling measure for overheated thematic speculation, particularly affecting sectors reliant on transaction volume and information dissemination [2][3]. - The current market is still in an upward trend, with active funds likely to seek opportunities in thematic investments, especially in sectors like commercial aerospace that have real industrial trends [3]. Earnings Forecast Period - The market has entered the earnings forecast period, with companies that have issued profit warnings outperforming those with profit increases, which is atypical compared to previous years [3][4]. - As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative increase for the profit warning group was 21.1%, surpassing the 19.7% increase for the profit increase group [4]. Global Market Influences - The strengthening of the US dollar and Bitcoin indicates a critical period for validating sustained AI demand, with Bitcoin rising to $95,500, a 9.2% increase since the end of the previous year [4]. - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies will be crucial in shifting market focus back to sectors with strong performance rather than speculative themes [4]. ETF Market Movements - A record net redemption of 141.2 billion yuan in ETFs occurred from January 12 to 16, 2026, primarily in broad-based ETFs, while thematic ETFs continued to see inflows [5]. - This trend of net redemptions in broad-based ETFs does not negatively impact the overall market trend, providing an opportunity for allocation into high-quality stocks [5]. Investment Strategy - A well-structured investment portfolio should focus on sectors with good experiences, low resistance, and anxiety mitigation, particularly in resources and traditional manufacturing [6]. - The strategy includes increasing allocations to non-bank financials and capturing opportunities in domestic consumption sectors to enhance returns while managing volatility [6].