智通财经网·2026-01-18 08:11Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of financing margin does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will impact its structure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical experience shows that an increase in financing margin can effectively reduce market volatility in the short term, as seen in November 2015 when the margin requirement was raised from 50% to 100%, leading to a decrease in volatility from 1.61% to 1.45% [1] - Following the margin adjustment, the average daily trading volume in A-shares dropped from 10,298 billion to 8,774 billion, a decline of 14.8%, indicating a significant cooling of investor sentiment [1] - The current financing buy-in ratio is relatively low, with an average of 11.18% since 2026, compared to 12.11% before the 2015 margin adjustment [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The adjustment is expected to particularly impact sectors that rely heavily on speculative trading and narrative-driven investments, such as commercial aerospace and AI applications, which have seen significant financing increases [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a desire for upward movement, with active funds likely to seek opportunities in thematic investments, especially those with real industrial trends [3] Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - As the market enters the earnings forecast period, the weight of performance indicators is increasing, with companies that have issued profit warnings outperforming those with profit increases, a trend not typically observed in previous years [4][5] - The cumulative increase for companies with profit warnings reached 21.1%, surpassing the 19.7% increase for profit-increasing companies as of January 16, 2026 [4] Group 4: Global Market Influences - The strengthening of the US dollar and Bitcoin indicates a critical period for validating sustained AI demand, with Bitcoin rising to $95,500, a 9.2% increase since the end of the previous year [6] - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies will be crucial in determining whether market attention shifts back to strong performance in real industries [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - A well-structured investment portfolio should focus on sectors with good experiences, low resistance, and anxiety mitigation, particularly in traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [8] - Investors are encouraged to increase allocations in non-bank financials and high-growth sectors while capturing opportunities in domestic consumption and high-certainty industries [8] Group 6: ETF Dynamics - The recent massive redemption of ETFs, totaling 141.2 billion, is part of a counter-cyclical adjustment, providing a window for allocation by institutional investors [7] - The net redemption was concentrated in broad-based ETFs, while industry-specific ETFs continued to see inflows, indicating a shift in investor strategy [7]