国际观察丨增长幻象下的民生之困——解析美国“斩杀线”的成因链

Core Insights - The concept of "death line" metaphorically represents the financial vulnerability of American households, where a single unexpected expense can lead to financial collapse [1] - The underlying causes of this phenomenon include economic imbalance, increasing wealth disparity, and ineffective social governance [1] Economic Imbalance and Wealth Disparity - Approximately 67% of Americans are classified as "living paycheck to paycheck," and 59% report being unable to cover unexpected expenses [2] - Despite recent economic growth data exceeding expectations, the reality for most Americans is rising living costs and stagnant wage growth, with real purchasing power declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of December 2025, while wage growth for middle-income families was only 2.3% and for low-income families just 1.4% [2] - The K-shaped economic recovery indicates that while some groups are improving, others, particularly low-income households, are facing worsening conditions [3] - About 87% of households earning over $100,000 hold financial assets, while approximately 42.3 million Americans carry a total of $1.8 trillion in student loan debt [3] Financial Fragility: Insufficient Savings and High Debt - Many American households lack emergency savings, making them vulnerable to financial shocks from minor expenses [4] - Only 63% of American adults could cover a $400 unexpected expense in cash or equivalents from 2022 to 2024, with a personal savings rate of just 4.0% as of September 2025 [5] - Total household debt reached a record high of $18.59 trillion by the third quarter of 2025, with credit card debt exceeding $1.23 trillion [5] - The average credit card debt per person was $6,523, with high-interest rates exacerbating the financial strain on households [6] Insufficient Social Safety Nets and Governance Failures - The U.S. welfare system has a "welfare cliff" effect, where slight income increases can lead to significant reductions in benefits, worsening financial conditions for low-income families [7] - Government spending is heavily skewed towards military expenditures, with a defense budget of approximately $895 billion for fiscal year 2025, while social welfare budgets are being cut [7] - Tariffs imposed by the government have increased import prices, contributing to inflation that disproportionately affects ordinary consumers [7] - The decline in social mobility makes it increasingly difficult for lower-income groups to improve their financial situations, leading to a persistent "death line" [7]