李迅雷：PPI“失去十五年”之谜

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% reported for December 2025, marking 39 consecutive months of decline since October 2021. This trend raises questions about the underlying reasons for the prolonged weakness in PPI despite significant GDP growth over the same period [1][52]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in negative territory for 111 months from 2012 to 2025, indicating that two-thirds of this period has been characterized by negative growth [1][52]. - From 2010 to 2025, China's GDP increased by 250%, yet the PPI index remained unchanged, suggesting a disconnect between economic growth and producer prices [1][53]. - The decline in PPI began after a significant investment stimulus in response to the 2008 financial crisis, which initially boosted PPI and CPI but later led to a prolonged period of negative PPI starting in March 2012 [2][53]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is primarily influenced by the prices of production materials, which have shown significant volatility but an overall cumulative increase of zero over the past 15 years [4][56]. - The prices of living materials have fluctuated less, with a cumulative increase of 4.4%, indicating a divergence in price trends between production and living materials [4][56]. - The divergence between Chinese and U.S. PPI post-2012 is attributed to rapid capacity expansion in China, leading to a significant drop in the export share of total industrial output [8][60]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Weak demand, particularly in the real estate sector, has been a critical factor in the inability of upstream price increases to transmit downstream, resulting in persistent PPI weakness [41][93]. - The real estate market's downturn has been linked to a broader economic slowdown, with real estate investment growth declining significantly since its peak in 2021 [35][88]. - The overall supply-demand imbalance, characterized by excess supply, has hindered price recovery, with industrial value-added growth lagging behind demand growth since 2020 [31][93]. Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Adjustment - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship, particularly by expanding effective demand [41][93]. - Increasing the income of middle and low-income groups and promoting consumption are recommended strategies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [103]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is also suggested as a means to alleviate excess capacity and promote consumer spending, although achieving stable housing prices may be challenging [103].