申万宏源：真正将“行稳致远”纳入思考框架

Group 1 - The 2026 market opening shows a clear characteristic of increased risk appetite driven by inflow of incremental funds, with commercial aerospace and AI application industries trending upwards [1][16] - The current market is experiencing strong momentum and excessive trading, which may lead to a short-term consolidation phase [1][16] - The average holding period for defense and military stocks is significantly lower than historical lows, indicating a decrease in stability for short-term momentum trades [1][19] Group 2 - The opening market is viewed as an extension of the strong structural technology market from 2025, which is now entering a high valuation adjustment phase [2][17] - Since September 2025, several high-momentum industries have entered a high-level consolidation phase, with notable examples including Nvidia's computing chain and Google's computing chain [2][17] - The market is expected to shift towards a consolidation phase after rapid valuation increases in new technology directions [2][17] Group 3 - The policy direction emphasizes a stable and long-term approach to avoid past investment pitfalls, such as the "deposit migration" of 2007 and the excessive trading of 2015 [10][26] - The A-share market has a mid-term upward basis, suggesting that a stable approach can balance short-term volatility with long-term goals [10][26] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential reduction in overall profit effects, with a need to wait for further economic and policy catalysts [10][28] Group 4 - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market suggests two phases of upward movement, with the first phase being driven by strong structural technology trends and the second phase potentially benefiting from cyclical improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [12][28] - The characteristics of the two upward phases are interconnected, with the first phase led by cyclical alpha and AI computing, while the second phase may see a transition towards application-level AI trends [12][28]