BCA Research首席新兴市场策略师：金价年底冲刺5000美元，大宗商品与美元逻辑生变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diverging fates of gold compared to cyclical commodities like copper and oil, predicting a significant rise in gold prices driven by structural demand, U.S. macroeconomic policies, and the need to suppress real interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The first key driver is the structural increase in global demand, particularly from central banks, with China's diversification of foreign reserves significantly impacting the market [4]. - The second driver is the "currency devaluation cycle," where institutional investors favor gold as the U.S. seeks to devalue its currency amid a dual crisis of public debt and fiscal deficits [4]. - The third and most critical variable is the suppression of real interest rates, which the U.S. government aims to achieve to manage public debt repayment pressures [5]. Group 2: Divergence from Other Commodities - The traditional correlation between a weak dollar benefiting all commodities is deemed ineffective, with gold and cyclical commodities like copper and oil heading towards different outcomes [2][6]. - Despite a weak dollar, the correlation logic between the dollar and cyclical commodities is breaking down, indicating that the expected commodity supercycle may not materialize [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that in a period of weak global growth and a declining dollar, emerging markets and cyclical commodities may not perform well, as their key driver is growth rather than currency [8].