算力芯片“吃尽”铜坨铝锭，有色金属行情走到哪一步了？

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical commodities industry is at a turning point, with supply constraints and global demand expected to drive price increases significantly by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The global metal futures market has seen a strong start in 2026, with LME copper prices reaching historical highs and LME tin hitting $54,760 per ton, reflecting an over 18% increase year-to-date [1] - The prices of aluminum and copper have also reached new highs, with domestic aluminum futures peaking at ¥250,700 per ton and copper at ¥105,600 per ton [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper, aluminum, and lithium markets are entering a "tight supply" phase, with projected supply-demand gaps for copper, aluminum, and lithium expected to reach 670,000 tons, 990,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively by 2026 [2] - The supply of copper is expected to transition from a surplus of 11,000 tons in 2024 to a deficit of 340,000 tons in 2026, influenced by AI demand [2][3] Group 3: Investment Insights - The industrial metal market has been primarily driven by supply-side disruptions over the past three years, with a lack of new large-scale projects contributing to price support [3] - The domestic industrial enterprise inventory cycle is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for replenishment rising, driven by new production capabilities and energy structure transitions [3] Group 4: Global Macro Perspective - The combination of U.S. fiscal expansion and a low-interest-rate environment is expected to lead to a revaluation of major assets globally, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold gaining renewed attention [4] Group 5: AI and Infrastructure Demand - AI is rapidly increasing copper consumption through upgrades to old power grids and new data centers, with significant copper requirements projected for these developments [5][6] - The overall demand for copper, aluminum, and other metals is expected to be supported by traditional infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and energy storage developments [6] Group 6: Price Volatility and Risks - Short-term volatility risks in industrial metals have been highlighted, with predictions of copper prices potentially falling to $11,200 per ton by Q4 2026 [6] - Concerns over potential high tariffs on copper could exacerbate short-term shortages and lead to extreme price fluctuations [7]