万亿存款搬家进行时：2026年的A股，慢牛正在成形

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in bank deposits is occurring, which may influence the A-share market in 2026, as investors seek new avenues for their funds due to declining deposit rates and changing market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Behavior - The scale of household deposits in China has exceeded 140 trillion yuan, reflecting a defensive posture amid uncertainty [2]. - From the second half of 2025 to 2026, deposit rates are expected to decline, leading to a reassessment of the long-term return advantages of equity assets [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The movement of funds from bank deposits does not equate to a rush into stock trading; rather, it indicates a gradual, layered, and long-term capital flow [3]. - The consensus for the A-share market in 2026 is shifting towards a "slow bull" or "long bull" market, driven by changes in the funding structure, policy objectives, and declining risk-free rates [3][4]. - The new main sources of incremental capital are expected to be pension funds, insurance funds, and index funds, which will lead to a more stable market environment [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three categories of investment opportunities are identified: 1. High dividend and stable cash flow assets such as banks, insurance, and utilities, which may attract low-risk preference funds [3]. 2. Core sectors aligned with long-term trends, including high-end manufacturing, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and renewable energy, which present structural opportunities despite short-term volatility [4]. 3. Indexation and concentration in leading companies, with an emphasis on selecting the right industries and companies over speculative trading [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The transition of trillions in deposits is viewed as a long-term trend rather than a short-term market catalyst, suggesting a more gradual upward trajectory for the A-share market [5][6]. - The market is expected to avoid extreme volatility and instead follow a steady growth path, emphasizing asset allocation and long-term holding strategies [5][6].