Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2026-01-18 13:43Market Trends - The lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 experienced significant volatility, with a peak price of 174,100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2026, followed by a sharp decline to 146,200 yuan/ton on January 16, marking a drop of 8.99% and over 16% from its peak [1][5][10] - The price fluctuations are attributed to a lack of solid driving factors for the recent price increase, leading to a sensitive investor sentiment [5][10] Production Capacity and Investment - Multiple lithium battery companies are expanding production, with over 282 publicly announced investment projects in the lithium battery supply chain for 2025, totaling over 820 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 74% [2][10] - The De'A Lithium New Materials Industrial Park in Sichuan is home to several projects, including a 200,000-ton lithium salt project by Guocheng Lithium Industry, which is expected to become the largest lithium salt production base in China [5][7] Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing increasing competition, with significant production capacity being developed in the De'A Lithium New Materials Industrial Park, including 20,000 tons from Guocheng Lithium Industry and 3,000 tons from Sichuan Energy Investment De'A Lithium Industry [10] - Companies are focusing on building cost advantages through unique resource utilization strategies, such as the circular economy model employed by Chuanfa Longmang, which significantly reduces production costs [8][10] Future Demand and Market Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize by 2026, with companies anticipating a balance between production and sales [10] - The recent decline in retail sales of new energy vehicles, down 38% year-on-year in early January 2026, has contributed to the downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [10][11] - Companies are looking towards the energy storage sector as a potential growth area, with predictions of a 30% increase in demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2026 [11]