六家机构 研判A股后市

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a potential for a stable transition into the second phase of the spring market, supported by favorable factors that have not changed [1][6] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to increase the importance of performance indicators, with high-quality companies showing solid fundamentals likely to yield excess returns [1][6] Investment Strategies - The investment focus remains on "anti-involution + technology," with sectors such as AI applications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment gaining attention for their investment value [1][10] - Citic Securities suggests constructing investment portfolios based on "resource + traditional manufacturing pricing re-evaluation," including sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [5] - Dongwu Securities emphasizes that the market is likely to stabilize, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and exceeding performance expectations [6] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, allowing local authorities to set lower limits based on local conditions [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for derivative trading, aiming to manage risks and support the real economy while limiting excessive speculation [3] Sector Insights - Open-source Securities highlights three main investment lines: recovery within the technology sector, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and maintaining gold and high-dividend assets as long-term holdings [7] - Fortune Fund identifies four key investment themes for 2026: embracing technology trends, enhancing the influence of Chinese manufacturing overseas, capturing cyclical rebound opportunities, and benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB in the non-bank financial sector [8] - Huatai Bairui Fund anticipates increased attention on resource and energy sectors due to improving domestic and foreign policy environments, which may lead to enhanced corporate profitability [9]