泉果基金刚登峰——A股港股仍处宝贵布局时期 投资主战场聚焦三大领域

Core Viewpoint - The current equity market, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, presents a favorable investment period despite a disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment [1] Economic Recovery and Structural Changes - The core variables that have caused market concerns in recent years, such as real estate, foreign trade structure, and manufacturing supply-demand relationships, are undergoing significant adjustments [2] - The real estate sector has experienced substantial adjustments since 2021, leading to a gradual reduction in its negative impact on consumer wealth and spending [2] - China's reliance on a single export market has decreased, with a more diversified export structure and an increase in high-value-added products, reducing overall external risk exposure [2] - The manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery as capital expenditures have declined, leading to clearer supply constraints and a correction of previous over-expansion impacts [2] - The capital market is also evolving, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Industry Trends: Technology, New Energy, and Cycles - The investment framework emphasizes that technology, new energy, and cyclical industries are interconnected and reflect different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results rather than short-term gains, with particular attention on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy investments are driven by supply-demand structural changes, with some sectors experiencing reduced capital expenditures while downstream demand continues to grow [3] - The cyclical sector is assessed based on structural judgments, focusing on industries with clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can enhance profitability even with limited demand growth [3] Portfolio Structure - The core of the portfolio structure is not to bet on a single direction but to find value across different industrial cycles [4] - The current stage allows for a resonance among technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors in terms of industrial logic, valuation levels, and verifiability, enhancing the portfolio's adaptability in structural markets [4] Company Quality Focus - The emphasis is placed on company quality, with a preference for long-term holdings that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential [5][6] - Companies must demonstrate the ability to navigate through cycles and consistently deliver performance, with dividends and buybacks seen as indicators of mature corporate governance [6] - A more cautious approach to left-side positioning is adopted, with a focus on participating during clearer industrial trends and balancing return potential with risk control over a 3 to 12-month horizon [6] - The importance of research collaboration is highlighted, with the goal of supporting real investment decisions and maintaining patience and discipline to achieve returns in structural markets [6]