债市投资2026：固收基金经理重构攻防体系

Group 1 - The bond market has faced adjustments since the second half of 2025, with rising yields and increased volatility, putting pressure on bond funds known for their stability [1][2] - Fund managers are focusing more on drawdown control and investment strategy iteration, with "negative duration" risk hedging strategies gaining attention [1][4] - The bond market is expected to present a volatile pattern in 2026, with traditional strategies regaining effectiveness and the allocation of convertible bonds and equity assets becoming important for enhancing returns [1][8] Group 2 - Over the past six months, bond market yields have continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing from approximately 1.65% in early July 2025 to nearly 1.9% by January 7, 2026, a rise of 25 basis points [2] - The net value of pure bond funds has been under pressure, with the pure bond fund index rising only 0.05% over the past six months, while the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index fell by 0.51% [2] - The current challenges for bond investments include poor odds and changes in traditional pricing logic, with institutional behavior and risk asset performance becoming more influential [2][3] Group 3 - The "negative duration" strategy is gaining attention as it allows for capital gains during rising interest rate cycles by constructing a portfolio with short-term liabilities and long-term assets [4][5] - This strategy has practical value in specific market conditions, particularly when interest rates are clearly on the rise and the yield curve steepens [4] - Fund managers are advised to be cautious with the "negative duration" strategy due to its high entry barriers, significant trading costs, and potential risks if interest rate directions are misjudged [6] Group 4 - In a volatile market, the ability to control drawdowns is crucial, but fund managers must also be able to generate excess returns to demonstrate their value [7] - The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in 2026, with traditional strategies like riding strategies, leverage strategies, and variety rotation strategies becoming more effective [7][8] - Fund managers are encouraged to adapt their strategies to the changing market dynamics, focusing on high-yield assets and maintaining flexibility in their investment approaches [8][9]