广发基金段涛：商业航天有望成为中长期主线

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to reach a critical inflection point in 2026, driven by policy support, technological advancements, breakthroughs in capital markets, and a consensus on commercialization potential [1][2]. Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from a conceptual phase to industrialization, becoming a significant focus in the capital market at the beginning of the year [2]. - Three core drivers of the current commercial aerospace market include: 1. The thematic heat similar to the robotics sector in 2025 2. Resonance between domestic and international industry and capital levels 3. Continuous event catalysts expected to last until at least the Chinese New Year [2]. Investment Focus - The industry is characterized by a complete market-driven value chain encompassing rockets, satellites, and applications, with the application segment further divided into space computing and ground operation services [2]. - Key bottlenecks in the industry are identified in the rocket segment, particularly the breakthrough of reusable rocket technology, which is essential for the practical application of low Earth orbit satellites [3]. Strategic Positioning - Institutional investors are beginning to systematically evaluate the long-term potential of the industry, focusing on segments with clear evolutionary directions within the value chain [4]. - Key areas of interest include: 1. Rocket segment: Focus on core components with technological barriers and potential asset integration opportunities, particularly in critical manufacturing processes like 3D printing 2. Satellite segment: Attention to high-barrier subfields such as payloads, with an emphasis on the increasing value and complexity of satellites as constellations evolve 3. Application segment: Recognized as the largest growth area, with significant potential demand in communication, navigation, and IoT as low Earth orbit constellation density increases 4. SpaceX supply chain: Anticipated growth in SpaceX user numbers from over 7 million to between 300 million and 500 million, with substantial increases in satellite launches [4]. Future Outlook - The global commercial aerospace sector is expected to develop four core trends by 2026: 1. Miniaturization of satellites, enabling mass networking and wide-area coverage 2. Giant constellations formed by small satellites becoming a global focus for building space infrastructure 3. Reusability of rockets significantly lowering launch costs, crucial for large-scale applications 4. Mainstreaming of applications, integrating aerospace services into daily life across various sectors [7].