摩根士丹利基金吴慧文： 债市双向波动加剧 2026是“低利率、高波动”突围之年

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to exhibit dual-directional fluctuations, with a focus on capturing rhythm opportunities rather than trends, as per Morgan Stanley's fixed income investment department co-director Wu Huiwen [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The core logic of the bond market in the first half of 2026 will revolve around the convergence of strong expectations and weak realities regarding the economy and deflation [1] - The market is anticipated to show dual-directional volatility, with limited risks of significantly rising interest rates due to prior pricing of strong expectations in 2025 [3] - The year 2026 is characterized as a breakout year under low interest rates and high volatility, with a consensus on interest rate risks formed after significant fluctuations in 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Wu Huiwen proposes an investment strategy centered on "steady foundation, proactive engagement, and dynamic adaptation," with approximately 80% of the portfolio allocated to stable, low-risk assets for consistent income [4] - The "steady foundation" portion aims to match asset duration with liability duration to avoid excessive duration mismatches, providing a safety net for the portfolio [4] - The "proactive engagement" aspect reflects a trading-oriented approach, with daily monitoring and analysis to capture real-time signals and adjust positions accordingly [5] Group 3: Research Framework - Wu Huiwen's high success rate in 2025, exceeding 90%, is attributed to a rigorous research framework that integrates macro, meso, and micro perspectives [2] - The macro level includes a multi-layered cycle observation system analyzing long, medium, and short-term inventory cycles, while the meso level tracks industries closely tied to the macro economy [2] - The micro level focuses on institutional behavior, supply-demand analysis, and market sentiment indicators, allowing for timely adjustments in portfolio positioning [2]