Vulcan Value Partners Q4 2025 Letter
Seeking Alpha·2026-01-18 19:12

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategies have shown positive returns for the year, with a focus on long-term performance over short-term results [2][5]. Performance Summary - Large Cap Composite (Gross) returned -1.4% QTD, 8.5% YTD, and 10.4% annualized since inception [3][22]. - Small Cap Composite (Gross) returned 3.4% QTD, 10.3% YTD, and 8.3% annualized since inception [3][31]. - Focus Composite (Gross) returned 0.2% QTD, 7.5% YTD, and 14.3% annualized since inception [3][36]. - All Cap Composite (Gross) returned 1.5% QTD, 11.5% YTD, and 11.1% annualized since inception [3][53]. Market Environment - The current market resembles the late 1990s, with concerns about overvaluation and a focus on AI-related stocks [5][6][7]. - AI is seen as a transformative technology, similar to the Internet, but caution is advised regarding valuations [7][9]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes buying only those companies with stable values, often waiting for them to become discounted enough for investment [10][12]. - The portfolio has shifted towards more healthcare and insurance-related businesses, with a focus on smaller companies outside the top 10 largest market capitalizations [11][12]. Notable Holdings - Medpace (MEDP) has shown significant growth, with a stock price increase of over 73% for the year, driven by strong free cash flow and share repurchases [13][14]. - Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. is highlighted for its robust growth and stable margins, despite facing a short-term pricing cycle [24][25][38]. - TransUnion is recognized for its strong operating margins and successful diversification beyond credit reports [26][38]. Performance Contributors and Detractors - Alphabet Inc. and Salesforce Inc. were significant contributors to performance, while CoStar Group and Microsoft Corporation were notable detractors [37][46]. - Fiserv Inc. was a material detractor due to downward guidance and strategic shifts in its business model [30][46]. Market Trends - The small-cap sector has lagged behind large-cap returns, presenting potential opportunities for investment as it is often overlooked [15]. - The dominance of large-cap stocks in market returns continues, with the top 10 S&P 500 stocks accounting for over 50% of its return in 2025 [16].