Investment Environment Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter a phase of improved overall conditions and deepening structural characteristics by 2026, driven by enhanced global liquidity and the performance acceleration of industries represented by artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - The market environment is anticipated to remain supportive, with optimism regarding the global economy and capital market conditions due to simultaneous monetary easing in the US and China [1][2] - Key trends to watch include potential preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued supportive policies for capital markets in both the US and China [1] AI and Technology Investment - AI is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with a focus on both computing power and application opportunities [2] - The demand for computing power is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential as the AI industry transitions from technology penetration to large-scale performance realization [2][3] - The domestic chip companies are improving their R&D capabilities, which may accelerate the localization of computing power by 2026 [3] Resource Sector Strength - The cyclical resource sector has shown strength since the beginning of 2026, with metals like gold, silver, copper, and aluminum attracting significant investment [4] - The manufacturing sector is likely to recover, positively impacting the cyclical direction, especially with global PMI data expected to rise amid continued interest rate cuts [5] - Specific segments such as copper are expected to benefit from AI's demand, as AI's influence on power systems will drive copper needs [4] Lithium Market Dynamics - Capital expenditure for lithium is projected to decline starting in 2026, potentially leading to a supply shortage by 2028 due to reduced expansion intentions among related companies [5] - The price of lithium, which peaked in 2022, is expected to undergo significant changes in the medium to long term as supply-side gaps become more pronounced [5]
机构热议2026年投资主线
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-18 20:45