国际劳工组织报告指出——全球就业质量改善明显放缓

Core Insights - The International Labour Organization's report indicates that while the global economy shows resilience, progress towards "decent work" has significantly stalled [1] Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is expected to remain consistent from 2025 to 2027, with no significant recession anticipated [1] - The global unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at 4.9% in 2026, with approximately 186 million unemployed individuals [2] Employment Quality and Participation - Employment quality improvements have slowed, with a notable increase in informal employment, projected to reach 2.1 billion people, or 57.7% of the global workforce by 2026 [2] - The labor force participation rate is expected to decline to 60.5% by 2027, primarily due to aging populations in high-income countries [2] Inequality in Employment - Gender inequality remains a significant issue, with women making up only 40% of the global workforce and facing lower participation rates compared to men [3] - Youth unemployment is worsening, with a global youth unemployment rate of 12.4% in 2025, and 2.6 billion young people neither employed nor in education or training [3] Trade and Technological Impact - Trade continues to support global employment, providing jobs for 465 million workers, but trade uncertainties are suppressing wages and high-quality job growth [3] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence is creating complex impacts on the job market [3] Structural Challenges in Low-Income Countries - Low-income countries are experiencing a 3.1% employment growth, but slow productivity growth and a lack of quality jobs are leading to increased informal employment and in-work poverty [4] - Labor income as a share of GDP is declining, with a projected labor income share of 52.6% in 2025, down from 53.0% in 2019 [4] Government Debt and Employment Policies - Global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP, limiting governments' ability to improve employment quality due to fiscal pressures [4]