泉果基金刚登峰—— A股港股仍处宝贵布局时期 投资主战场聚焦三大领域

Core Viewpoint - The current equity market, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, presents a favorable investment period despite a lack of clear investor sentiment, as the market is in a unique phase of adjustment [1] Economic Recovery and Structural Changes - The concerns that have weighed on the market in recent years are gradually subsiding, particularly in the real estate sector, where the negative impact on consumer wealth and spending is diminishing [2] - China's export structure has diversified, reducing reliance on single markets, with high-value products like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells gaining prominence [2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery as previous over-expansion leads to clearer supply constraints, improving the supply-demand relationship [2] - The capital market is undergoing changes, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Industry Trends: Technology, New Energy, and Cycles - The investment framework emphasizes that technology, new energy, and cyclical industries are interconnected, reflecting different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results rather than short-term gains, with particular attention on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy sectors are characterized by supply-demand structural changes, with capital expenditure contracting while downstream demand continues to grow, indicating investment opportunities [3] - The cyclical sector is assessed based on clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can lead to profit improvements even with limited demand growth [3] Investment Strategy and Company Quality - The core of the investment strategy is to seek value across different industrial cycles rather than betting on a single direction, with technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors resonating in terms of industrial logic and valuation [4][5] - Company quality is prioritized, with a focus on firms that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential, as limited growth can restrict shareholder returns [6] - The approach to left-side positioning is more cautious, emphasizing participation during clearer industrial trends and balancing return potential with risk control over a 3 to 12-month horizon [6] - Research collaboration is crucial, with the value of research lying in its ability to support real investment decisions, enhancing the efficiency of investment research conversion [6]