沪铜：库存季节性累积，警惕回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing labor strike at Chile's Manto Verde mine has resulted in a significant reduction in copper production, maintaining only 30% of normal output during the strike, with no progress in negotiations [3][9] - High copper prices have led to a seasonal accumulation of copper inventories, with total stocks reaching elevated levels, while demand has been delayed due to the high prices and the onset of the off-season [4][10] Short-term Fundamental Changes - Recent increases in copper prices and rising sulfuric acid prices have helped to offset smelter profits, leading to an unexpected rise in domestic copper production [4][10] - The high copper prices have caused a significant decline in the operating rates of copper rod enterprises, resulting in a rapid accumulation of social copper inventories [4][10] - It is anticipated that the high copper prices will lead to delayed demand rather than a complete disappearance, with long-term consumption remaining robust [4][10] Medium to Long-term Core Logic - The macroeconomic narrative is improving, with potential downward risks in U.S. employment and manageable inflation, allowing for speculation on future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10] - The U.S. continues to stockpile copper as a strategic metal, exacerbating the supply-demand balance globally, while domestic copper production is being stimulated through profit incentives for smelters [5][10] - Copper mine supply remains tight, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts, indicating that supply constraints will persist into next year [5][10] - A consensus among Chinese copper smelting enterprises to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 is seen as a strategic move to ensure the industry's healthy development [5][10] Market Outlook - The arrival of the off-season and delayed demand have led to a rapid accumulation of copper inventories, posing a risk of short-term price declines [6][11] - The medium to long-term supply-demand outlook remains positive, with recommendations to observe the market until copper prices decline and inventories are consumed before re-entering long positions [6][11]