Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-19 00:08Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that by 2026, the global supply of electrolytic copper will remain limited, with an expected year-on-year increase of 660,000 tons, representing a growth rate of 2.4%. In contrast, global demand for electrolytic copper, driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction, is projected to increase by 930,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.3%. This shift may lead to a transition from oversupply to shortage, and combined with factors such as overseas inflation and marginal liquidity easing, the average copper price is expected to rise significantly year-on-year. In the medium to long term, technological advancements and a recovery in overseas manufacturing are anticipated to sustain high demand for electrolytic copper from 2026 to 2028, while supply constraints remain strong due to frequent disruptions in copper mining, resource scarcity, and delayed price responses. The forecast suggests that global supply and demand will remain in shortage during this period, with copper prices potentially exceeding $15,000 per ton [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - By 2026, global electrolytic copper supply is expected to increase by 660,000 tons, a growth rate of 2.4% [1] - Global electrolytic copper demand is projected to rise by 930,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.3% [1] - The transition from oversupply to shortage is anticipated due to increased demand driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction [1] Price Outlook - The average copper price is expected to rise significantly year-on-year due to supply-demand dynamics and external economic factors [1] - Forecasts indicate that copper prices could potentially exceed $15,000 per ton during the 2026-2028 period [1]