中经评论：我国为何一口气申报20万颗卫星

Core Viewpoint - China's application for 203,000 satellite frequency resources to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is a strategic move to secure its space development rights and transition from experimental to industrial capabilities in aerospace [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Importance - The application of 203,000 satellites is a necessary action to safeguard China's space development rights amid global competition for low Earth orbit resources, which are physically scarce and non-renewable [2]. - The current technological limit for safely deploying low Earth orbit satellites is approximately 100,000, with optimistic estimates reaching 175,000, while global applications have already surpassed this threshold [2]. - The ITU's "first come, first served" allocation rule emphasizes the need for early applications to secure development opportunities, making China's application a rational and rule-compliant strategy [2]. Group 2: Industry Development - The ambitious goal of deploying 203,000 satellites presents both opportunities and challenges, potentially driving a trillion-yuan industry upgrade encompassing rocket launches, satellite production, ground equipment, and operational services [3]. - Achieving this goal requires substantial industrial capabilities, as the ITU mandates that the first satellite must be launched within seven years of application, and the entire constellation must be deployed within 14 years [3]. - Current launch capacity is a significant bottleneck, with only 500 low Earth commercial satellites deployed in 2025, highlighting a vast gap compared to the annual requirement of over 10,000 satellites to meet the 203,000 target [3]. Group 3: Implementation Strategies - To realize the goal of 203,000 satellites, a three-pronged approach involving technological breakthroughs, supportive policies, and collaborative ecosystems is essential [4]. - Technological focus should be on developing high-capacity reusable rockets and optimizing satellite mass production capabilities to ensure an annual supply of over 10,000 satellites [4]. - Policy frameworks need to be enhanced, including establishing industry-specific funds, optimizing commercial launch site layouts, and fostering collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises to avoid chaotic competition [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation - Emphasizing a shared future for humanity, there is a need to establish an international regulatory mechanism for space resources that includes pre-deployment assessments [4]. - Collaboration with other countries on collision warnings and space debris management is crucial, alongside technology sharing and joint research initiatives within the framework of international regulations [4].