Core Viewpoint - The current A-share and Hong Kong stock markets present a valuable investment opportunity despite the lack of clear investor "gain" perception, as the core factors suppressing the equity market are gradually entering a phase of adjustment [1] Economic Recovery and Institutional Changes - The optimism regarding the market is based on a systematic observation of the economy, with key concerns such as real estate, foreign trade structure, and manufacturing supply-demand relationships showing signs of stabilization [2] - The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, reducing its negative impact on consumer wealth and spending tendencies [2] - China's reliance on a single market for exports has decreased, leading to a more diversified export structure with a growing share of high-value products [2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery phase as previous over-expansion effects are being addressed, with capital expenditures declining in many industries [2] - Changes in the capital market's institutional environment include a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks by listed companies, enhancing investor return focus [2] Key Investment Areas - The main investment focus areas are technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors, which are interconnected and reflect different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the emphasis is on certainty and realization capability rather than short-term explosive growth, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy investments are driven by supply-demand structural changes, with capital expenditures in certain sub-sectors contracting while downstream demand continues to grow [3] - The cyclical sector is approached with a focus on industries with clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can lead to profit improvements even with limited demand growth [3] Portfolio Structure and Company Quality - The core of the portfolio structure is not to bet on a single direction but to find cost-effectiveness across different industrial cycles, with technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors resonating in terms of industrial logic, valuation levels, and verifiability [4] - Company quality is prioritized, with a focus on firms that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential, as limited growth can restrict shareholder returns [5] - The approach to left-side positioning has become more cautious, emphasizing participation during clearer industrial trends and balancing return elasticity with drawdown control over a 3 to 12-month mid-term cycle [5] - Research collaboration is emphasized, with the value of research lying in its ability to support real investment decisions, requiring patience and restraint to achieve sustained returns in structural markets [5]
泉果基金刚登峰：A股港股仍处宝贵布局时期 投资主战场聚焦三大领域
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-19 00:14