中信建投:主动降温下A股跨年行情或生变化 关注特高压、可控核聚变等
智通财经网·2026-01-19 00:24

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share market has seen an intensified year-end rally since the beginning of the year, with recent adjustments following a proactive cooling measure aimed at preventing potential short-term severe consequences of a "crazy bull" market. The long-term outlook remains positive, and the implementation of this policy is seen as more mature and forward-looking [1][4]. Industry Configuration - Key sectors showing significant economic catalysts include AI computing power, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. Previous hot sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications may undergo phase adjustments, while other themes such as ultra-high voltage, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion are worth monitoring [2][12][24]. - In terms of investment, AI computing-related capital expenditures are accelerating, with the precious metals sector seeing a rise in trading and safe-haven attributes. The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen significant business development (BD) transactions, and negotiations related to European and Chinese new energy vehicles are ongoing [2][19][20]. Impact of Proactive Cooling on Year-End Rally - The proactive cooling measure is intended to mitigate the risks associated with overheated trading, which has led to concerns among investors about a potential reversal of the year-end rally. Historical cases suggest that such interventions are necessary to prevent severe market consequences, and the current policy is viewed as a means to maintain a rational investment environment [4][8]. - The overall market structure of the year-end rally remains intact despite the cooling measures, which may lead to changes in trading direction and alleviate previously overheated conditions [1][4]. Focused Sectors - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, AI, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, humanoid robots, nuclear power, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, commercial aerospace, and ultra-high voltage [3][12]. - The ultra-high voltage sector is expected to see total investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period increase by 40% compared to the previous plan, while significant breakthroughs in controllable nuclear fusion technology and accelerated clinical applications of brain-computer interfaces are noted [2][24]. Market Dynamics - The precious metals sector has shown strong performance, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver exhibiting higher volatility. The industrial and non-ferrous metals sectors have experienced price increases driven by supply disruptions and demand improvements, although short-term volatility remains a concern [17][19]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has been boosted by major BD transactions, such as the collaboration between Rongchang Bio and AbbVie, which is expected to enhance market sentiment and attention towards domestic innovative pharmaceutical assets [19][20].