华泰宏观：如果美国对北约成员加征关税

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Macro indicates that potential tariff increases by the U.S. on eight NATO countries could raise the U.S. weighted average tariff rate from the current 11.0% by an additional 1.1 to 2.2-2.8 percentage points [1] Group 1 - If the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on February 1 and a 25% tariff on June 1, the weighted average tariff will increase by 1.1 and 2.2-2.8 percentage points respectively [1] - Tariffs are viewed as a lever for Trump's "Tariffism," but the more significant impact is the U.S. government's claim over Greenland, which may accelerate the breakdown of the existing global order based on rules [1] - The U.S. government's actions are expected to provide "short-term stimulus and medium to long-term elevation" to European defense spending [1] Group 2 - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Davos meeting and the Munich Security Conference in February, where statements from the Trump administration may be significant [1]