华泰证券：港股斜率放缓，空间仍在

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations last week, rebounding significantly in the first half due to expectations around AI applications, easing overseas monetary policy, and short covering, but cooling down in the latter half, showing relative resilience [1] - Key factors driving the market rebound in Q1 remain unchanged, including overall loose financial conditions, foreign capital and southbound capital returning, upward revisions in profit expectations, and the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [1] - The market sentiment has improved, with fear indicators moving out of panic zones and a notable decline in short positions, indicating a potential right-side harvesting period for the market [1] Earnings and Revenue Forecasts - Non-financial earnings and revenue forecasts have been revised upwards, with the most significant increases seen in the metals and electric new energy sectors [2] - Over the past four weeks, the consensus forecast for non-financial earnings has been revised up by 0.2%, while revenue forecasts have been slightly adjusted down by 0.1% [2] - The sectors with the largest upward revisions in earnings forecasts include metals (5.5%), electric new energy (2.8%), and light industry (2.1%) [2] Capital Flow and Liquidity - There has been a significant inflow of foreign capital, with net inflows into Hong Kong stocks reaching $2.82 billion, compared to $1.54 billion the previous week [3] - Active foreign capital has turned into net inflows, with the largest weekly net inflow since September 2024, while passive foreign capital inflows have also increased [3] - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, with approximately HKD 10.05 billion net inflow last week, primarily into media, computing, and retail sectors [3] Market Sentiment - The sentiment index for Hong Kong stocks has improved, reaching a reading of 33.7, indicating a recovery from panic levels [3] - Historical data suggests that entering the "panic zone" has led to a 100% success rate for Hong Kong stocks over the following month since the end of 2023 [3] - The current market environment is seen as a favorable time for positioning, with reduced short selling pressure and a shift towards a right-side harvesting phase [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on sectors related to the AI chain (semiconductors, software) and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a gradual accumulation strategy for high-quality new consumer stocks [4] - Mid-term recommendations include overweighting upstream sectors in the power chain (electric equipment and metals like copper and aluminum), insurance, and local real estate in Hong Kong [4] - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include GDP, industrial output, and retail sales figures [4]