2025年12月：终端需求改善 石油和化工行业景气指数上涨

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 100.91 in December 2025, indicating signs of recovery with a month-on-month increase of 3.7 percentage points [2][10] - The sub-indices show significant divergence: the oil and gas extraction sector continues to decline due to low oil prices, while the fuel processing industry benefits from cost advantages, leading to a rebound [2][10] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector experienced a decline due to reduced downstream purchasing demand, while the rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector saw a recovery through active inventory reduction [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell to 93.20, a decrease of 3.52 percentage points, entering a cold zone for the first time in four months, reflecting a significant pressure on the industry due to low oil prices [10][15] - The fuel processing industry index surged to 114.45, up 19.77 percentage points, showcasing high volatility driven by alternating cost and demand factors [13][15] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing index dropped to 95.62, down 6.75 percentage points, as downstream industries reduced inventory following a peak in demand [13][15] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing index increased to 100.97, up 7.02 percentage points, due to proactive inventory reduction strategies [14][15] Manufacturing PMI and Economic Signals - China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December 2025, signaling a recovery in manufacturing activity and improved market demand [3][17] - The production index and new orders index both increased, indicating a potential support for the recovery of the petrochemical industry in the coming months [3][17] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% on December 10, 2025, marking the third rate cut of the year [4][18] - The impact of the rate cut varies across the industry, with upstream oil and gas extraction remaining under pressure, while downstream sectors may benefit from lower costs and potential overseas demand recovery [4][18] Market Expectations - In January 2026, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be at a critical intersection of improving macro expectations and industry cycle bottoming, with structural differentiation becoming more pronounced [8][20] - The overall outlook suggests a gradual recovery pattern where downstream sectors may recover before upstream sectors, leading to a structural improvement in the industry [8][20]