Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-19 00:54Core Viewpoint - The global strategic position of rare earth resources is continuously improving, and the rare earth industry is entering a new era of high-quality development. Supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy are expected to drive long-term growth in demand. It is anticipated that from 2026 onwards, the global supply-demand gap for rare earths will continue to widen, leading to stable price increases and enhanced profitability for the industry chain [3][41]. Industry Development - Since the introduction of the "Rare Earth Strategic Reserve" by the State Council in 2011, a series of policies aimed at protecting rare earth resources and accelerating the application of key core technologies have been implemented. The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality development of the rare earth industry, with the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" set to take effect in October 2024 [4][41]. - The transition from a resource power to an industrial power in the rare earth sector is being facilitated through strict policy controls, technological innovation, and green transformation [4][41]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to USGS data, global rare earth production is projected to reach 390,000 tons in 2024, with China accounting for 270,000 tons, or 69% of the total. The growth rate of rare earth mining indicators is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in 2024, a decline of 15.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][43]. - The cumulative import of rare earths in China decreased by 25.1% year-on-year from January to November 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][43]. Emerging Demand Drivers - The demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets is expected to grow significantly, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, industrial motors, and variable frequency air conditioners. By 2028, the demand for neodymium-iron-boron in domestic and overseas electric vehicles is projected to increase by 90,000 tons and 41,000 tons, respectively, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 19.3% and 20.0% [17][34]. - New sectors like humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are anticipated to become new growth points for rare earth magnet demand, with neodymium demand in humanoid robots expected to reach 33,000 tons by 2035 [20][34]. Price Outlook - The supply-demand gap for rare earths is expected to widen from 2026 onwards, with projected deficits of -0.5, -0.9, -1.3, and -2.1 million tons for the years 2025 to 2028, respectively. This tightening market is likely to support stable price increases for rare earths, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide expected to rise to a range of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [32][38].