钢厂补库仍稳，原料支撑行情趋缓

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a stable bottom in its fundamentals, with a slight increase in price differentials and a current loss per ton of 34.6 yuan, while the profitability rate for steel companies stands at 39.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The iron ore port inventory has reached a high level, leading to cautious replenishment by steel mills, resulting in a slight price correction for iron ore due to a lack of further catalysts [2][5]. - The steel price trend is stabilizing, with the hot-rolled coil price showing a narrow increase, averaging 3317 yuan/ton across 24 major markets [3]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 1.6% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.2% [1][2]. Group 2: Raw Material Analysis - The coking coal market saw a price increase due to a reduction in production capacity, but the supply disturbances have not expanded further, leading to a stable overall price for coking coal [4]. - The average price for Shanxi main coking coal is reported at 1211 yuan/ton, with various grades of metallurgical coke priced between 1210 and 1600 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron ore prices are currently weak, with the 66% fine powder index at 976 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel mills are increasing production rates with fewer maintenance plans in January, indicating a clear expectation of supply growth [3]. - Demand remains weak, primarily driven by cautious replenishment strategies, with speculative demand being low [3][5]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is reported at 16555.10 million tons, showing an increase of 279.84 million tons [5].