【科创之声】我国为何一口气申报20万颗卫星

Core Viewpoint - China's application for 203,000 satellite frequency orbits is a strategic reserve to secure its space development rights and transition from experimental to industrial capabilities in aerospace [2][3]. Group 1: International Competition and Strategic Importance - The application for 200,000 satellites is a reasonable action to defend China's space development rights amid global competition, where low Earth orbit and frequency resources are scarce and non-renewable [3]. - The current technological limit for safely deploying low Earth satellites is approximately 100,000, with an optimistic estimate of 175,000, while the total global applications have already surpassed this threshold [3]. - The "first come, first served" allocation rule by the ITU necessitates early applications to secure development opportunities, making China's application a necessary measure to lock in reasonable space for future aerospace development [3]. Group 2: Opportunities and Challenges in Commercial Space Development - The ambitious goal of 200,000 satellites will drive a comprehensive upgrade of a trillion-yuan industry chain, including rocket launches, satellite production, ground equipment, and operational services [4]. - Achieving this goal requires solid industrial capabilities, as the ITU mandates that the first satellite must be launched within seven years of application, and the entire constellation must be deployed within 14 years [4]. - There are significant challenges, including insufficient launch capacity, with only 92 launches planned in 2025 and fewer than 500 low Earth commercial satellites deployed, highlighting a substantial gap from the required annual launch rate of over 10,000 satellites [4]. Group 3: Strategies for Implementation - To realize the goal of 200,000 satellites, a three-pronged approach involving technological breakthroughs, policy support, and ecosystem collaboration is essential [5]. - Technologically, the focus should be on developing high-capacity reusable rockets and optimizing satellite mass production capabilities to ensure an annual supply of over 10,000 satellites [5]. - On the policy and resource front, it is crucial to enhance the regulatory framework, establish industry-specific funds, and optimize commercial launch site layouts to support the growth of the aerospace sector [6].