中金：首次覆盖佳鑫国际资源(03858)予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价95港元 坚定看好公司运营机制及发展潜能

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Jaxin International Resources (03858) is focused on the operation of the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan and is expected to perform well, with an initial coverage rating of "outperform" and a target price of HKD 95.00, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to 22.6/14.8x P/E for 2026-2027 [1] - The global tungsten supply-demand pattern is expected to remain tight, with tungsten prices likely to steadily increase. The supply side shows strong scarcity and high concentration, with China's tungsten production consistently ranking first globally. Domestic supply faces contraction pressure due to declining ore grades and stricter production regulations, while overseas tungsten mine development is generally slow. The forecast for global tungsten supply CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is +2.4% [1] - On the demand side, the overall consumption of tungsten in China is expected to improve due to emerging demands from photovoltaic tungsten wire, AI PCBs, and large infrastructure projects. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical conflicts may trigger strategic stockpiling demand. The forecast for global tungsten consumption CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is +2.7% [1] Group 2 - Jaxin International Resources has four core advantages that position it as a highly competitive mining leader in the Central Asian region: 1) Good resources with large reserves and low costs at the Bakuta tungsten mine; 2) Good location with favorable transport conditions and benefits from the China-Kazakhstan strategic partnership and the Belt and Road Initiative; 3) Good mechanism with a mixed ownership structure and management team; 4) Good growth potential in capacity expansion, deep processing, and resource accumulation [2] - The company is expected to achieve significant earnings growth, with projected EPS of HKD 0.63, 4.18, and 6.56 for 2025-2027, representing a CAGR of 221.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 2.6 billion, 17.2 billion, and 26.3 billion for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E of 16.5 and 10.5 for 2026-2027, with a target price of HKD 95, indicating a potential upside of 38% [3]