淡季影响需求提振 预计沥青盘面短期内窄幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a weekly drop of 1.11% and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]. Market Overview - As of January 15, the spot price of asphalt was reported at 3140 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 6.67 yuan/ton, or 0.21%. Over the past week, asphalt prices have risen by 40 yuan/ton, a 1.29% increase, and over the past month, prices have increased by 193.33 yuan/ton, or 6.56% [2]. - During the week of January 7 to January 13, the total shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 317,000 tons, representing a 1.0% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate for 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 6.8%, up 0.1% week-on-week and 2.6% year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - Dayue Futures notes that recent production cuts by refineries have reduced supply pressure, but overall demand remains weak and below expectations. Inventory levels are stable, and weakening crude oil prices are diminishing cost support in the short term. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with asphalt prices projected to oscillate between 3138 and 3196 yuan/ton [3]. - Haitong Futures emphasizes that the absolute price trends of asphalt will continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the U.S. and Iran. The uncertain situation in Iran is likely to cause volatility in oil prices, which will subsequently affect asphalt prices. The short-term outlook suggests a focus on geopolitical risks, with strategies indicating a preference for buying low in the near term [3].