华泰期货：近期贵金属出现较为显著调整，黄金或仍有价格支撑

Macro Perspective - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback during the week of January 16, 2026. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed chair [2][10] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and that the current policy stance is "well-positioned." The economy is expected to grow by 2% in the short term, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [2][10] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the job market does not improve. She noted that inflationary pressures are easing and emphasized the need to monitor risks to the Fed's "full employment" mission [2][10] Fundamental Data - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts totaled 100,053 kg, an increase of 2,400 kg from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [3][11] - On the Comex, gold inventories decreased by 176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces, while silver inventories fell by 10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces [3][11] - As of January 16, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF held 1,074.80 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF held 16,073 tons. As of January 13, 2025, speculative net long positions in gold were 136,548 contracts, while silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts [4][12] Market Strategy - Gold is rated as neutral. Recent adjustments in precious metals are notable, with market expectations for Hassett's potential appointment as Fed chair leading to increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which negatively impacts gold prices. However, the long-term logic for gold remains intact as a substitute for dollar assets [5][13] - Silver is also rated as neutral. The price of silver has seen a significant pullback, and while it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, there is a need for careful position management and strict stop-loss execution due to silver's inherent volatility [6][14] - An arbitrage strategy suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while options strategies are currently on hold [15]